Number reading foreign trade new high, China's foreign trade to the good trend continues to consolidate.

■ Guo Jinhui, reporter of China Economic Times

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, in the first four months, the scale of my country's import and export of goods trade hit a record high in the same period. At the same time, the import and export structure of goods trade has been continuously optimized, and the momentum has been continuously enhanced. Experts predict that with the increasing number of positive factors, China's import and export of goods trade will continue to improve in the future.

01

Volume Increase Quality Increase Foreign Trade Kinetic Energy Continuously Enhances

Data show that in the first four months, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 13.81 trillion billion yuan, an increase of 5.7 percent over the same period last year. It is worth noting that my country's general trade import and export increased, and processing trade import and export changed from negative to positive; imports and exports to ASEAN, the United States, and South Korea increased; private enterprises and state-owned enterprises increased; mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60% of exports, of which automatic Data processing equipment and its parts, integrated circuits and automobiles increased; imports of major commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, coal and natural gas increased.

Zhao Fujun, director and researcher of the Comprehensive Research Office of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times that judging from the import and export of goods trade in the past four months, China's foreign trade situation is picking up. For example, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in February and March was 3.6 percent and -1.3 percent, respectively, both lower than the same period last year, but the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in April was 8 percent, higher than the same period last year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in the first four months was also higher than that of the same period last year.

Lan Qingxin, deputy dean of the School of International Economics and Trade of the University of International Business and Economics, said in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times that the scale of my country's import and export of goods trade reached a new high in the first four months. While the import and export of goods trade has achieved volume growth, the structure has been continuously upgraded. This is the biggest feature of my country's import and export of goods trade. For example, the trade structure shows the trend of industrial upgrading in China, the regional structure of trading partners shows the trend of continuous optimization, and the trade mode shows the trend of structural upgrading.

Data show that in April, China's import and export of goods trade 3.64 trillion yuan, the growth rate from negative to positive, an increase of 8% year-on-year. In an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of China Everbright Bank, believed that in terms of U.S. dollars, my country's exports and imports of goods in April rebounded year-on-year, both exceeding expectations. China's foreign trade exports remain resilient, import demand steadily rebounded, foreign trade is expected to continue to play an important role in supporting economic growth. At the same time, the steady expansion of China's foreign trade reflects that global demand still has some momentum, which helps to enhance market confidence in the global economic recovery.

        Photo Source Xinhua News Agency

02

Positive factors increase foreign trade to the good trend will continue

The positive factors of China's foreign trade are increasing. Zhao Fujun believes that the favorable factors facing China's foreign trade are manifested in three aspects. First, my country's economy has rebounded and improved, driving the import growth of 6.8 in the first four months, providing strong support for the development of foreign trade. Second, China is building a competitive advantage in an industrial chain ecosystem characterized by innovation. my country is actively developing high-tech industries to help exports. my country's exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 6.9 in the first four months. At the same time, accelerate the integration of high-tech industries, digital technology and traditional industries, and continuously enhance the competitiveness of traditional industries. Third, China's active promotion of high-level openness and stable foreign trade policy effects continue to release. Continuously improve the level of facilitation for foreigners to do business, study and travel in China, and help the development of foreign trade.

Lan Qingxin believes that China has continuously optimized the business environment for foreign trade and promoted the development of foreign trade. New formats and models such as cross-border electronic commerce and foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises are developing rapidly. China's manufacturing industry is relatively complete, the cost of technology development is relatively low, and the degree of product diversification is high, which can meet the large-scale and multi-level needs of the international market. China's economy continues to improve, driving the growth of commodity imports. At the same time, China's "buy the world, sell the world" situation is becoming more and more obvious. This is China's contribution to the world.

The global economy is still recovering, and the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased significantly, which will have an adverse impact on the development of my country's foreign trade. Lan Qingxin believes that international geopolitical conflicts may increase the cost of trade and affect the smoothness of trade. The tight monetary policy of the United States has not changed, and the international market and international economic trade are still unstable and uncertain. In addition, the competitive substitution of some developing countries, especially the processing of labor-intensive products, and the "decoupling and chain breaking" of countries represented by the United States, may have a certain impact on China's foreign trade.

Despite some uncertainties, the long-term positive trend of China's foreign trade has not changed.

Lan Qingxin said that my country has the advantages of market advantages, institutional innovation advantages, relatively strong industrial supporting capabilities, as well as the advantages of continuous improvement of technological level and relatively low technological development costs. my country's foreign trade will continue to grow in the future.

Zhao Fujun believes that based on my country's foreign trade situation in the first four months, corporate orders and the global trade situation this year, it is expected that the foreign trade situation will pick up in the first half of this year.

Zhou Maohua predicts that in the next few months, my country's foreign trade exports are expected to continue to maintain moderate growth. The main reasons are the moderate expansion of global demand, the more diversified my country's foreign trade exports, and the strong overseas demand for products such as electric vehicles, new energy batteries and equipment manufacturing. The growth rate of China's foreign trade imports is expected to accelerate moderately. The main reasons for this are the steady repair of domestic demand, the improvement of consumption and domestic demand to boost import demand, the continuous improvement of industrial manufacturing inventory and operating conditions, macro-policy support, and the expected strengthening of domestic enterprises' initiative to replenish inventory.